Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Peak Oil

As I drove to work this morning I listened to C-Span's Washington Journal on Sirius Satellite Radio as they interviewed Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, a conservative Republican from the state of Maryland. As unlikely as it may sound, this ultraconservative is bucking the trend of his head-in-the-sand (groan) colleagues. Representative Bartlett was like a breath of fresh air. He gets it. He understands that the world is at a threshold.... a turning point .... a tipping point.... We are at the threshold of peak oil world wide. I just read Matt Simmon's eye-opening book "Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil collapse and the world economy". Please read this book. Matt Simmons engaged in extensive research to substantiate the truths that the Saudi oil fields are at or near their peak output potential. What does this mean? Well, the USA reached peak production in the 70's and our production has declined since then to 75% of that peak despite new finds in the Gulf of Mexico. The Saudi's main oil field has been pumping out oil since the 60's. All oil fields go through a cycle of increased production, peak production, followed by decline. There have been no new major oil discoveries in recent times. The era of cheap oil is over.

OK, "so what" you say. I can drive my car less or I can walk to work. WRONG. Our entire economy from food to the supermarkets to the banking industry is built on cheap oil. Gas at $3 /gallon is cheap. As world demand continues to increase and the supply has peaked and begins to decline gas prices will escalate rapidly. We're looking at $10/gallon or $15/gallon gas in the very near future.

This very conservative representative (Republican) Roscoe Bartlett referenced an article readily available on the Internet. I urge you to read it in its entirety and consider every point expressed with the utmost thought:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Then consider this article:

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html

Plan your future with open eyes. We are in for some wild and wooly times. I urge you to prepare.

In five years time or less I will say "I told you so"....

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